摘要:

Recent concern with the potential for stray carbon fibers to damage electronic equipment and cause economic losses has led to the development of advanced risk‐assessment methods. Risk assessment often requires the synthesis of risk profiles which represent the probability distribution of total annual losses due to a certain set of events or activities. A number of alternative probabilistic models are presented which the authors have used to develop such profiles. Examples are given of applications of these methods to assessment of risk due to conductive fibers released from aircraft or automobile fires. These assessments usually involve a two‐stage approach: estimation of losses for several subclassifications of the overall process, and synthesis of the results into an aggregate risk profile. The methodology presented is capable of treating a wide variety of situations involving sequences of random physical eve

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01397.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

It is pointed out that the familiar analytical device of “event tree”, widely used in risk analysis, can be viewed as a transition matrix expressing the likelihood of going from “entry states” to “exit states”. This point of view is shown to have numerous interesting conceptual and computational features which promise to make it a very useful addition to the arsenal of tools for risk analysis. The basic idea is explained first in terms of a simple, made‐up example. The application of the idea to a very real and complicated problem, nuclear‐plant risk assessment, i

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01398.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Age‐adjusted cancer mortality data (1964) were examined for evidence of independence. Indications were found that substitution of one cancer for another is a common occurrence. The data were interpreted as supportive of the view that natural selection for resistance to cancer in general has occurred with many resistance‐related genes common to prevention of cancer of several sites. Consequently, the comparison of age‐adjusted incidence or mortality rates of cancer of single sites alone does not provide a satisfactory estimate of the magnitude of an “environmentally induced” cancer risk. It is necessary to examine all causes of death to find indications of a real life‐shorten

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01399.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A nonparametric estimator of the probability distribution of time‐to‐tumor is incorporated into an algorithm for calculating linearly extrapolated dosage limits from an animal carcino‐genesis bioassay. The procedure is illustrated with tumor data from a mouse bioassay with 2‐acetylaminofluorene. Extrapolated dosage limits for an excess risk of 10‐6differ by only a factor of 2 across the six replicates of the e

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01400.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Cost/benefit analysis is often an imprecise tool because of assumptions that must be made about matters that are difficult to quantify. The problems become especially acute when lives or serious bodily injuries are at stake because of the serious nature of that which is being risked. Furthermore, the literature on cost/benefit analysis focuses on public decision‐making situations and decisions by individuals. This paper examines the distinctiveness of the use of cost/benefit analysis involving putting dollar values on human life by for‐profit firms. The argument developed in the paper is that the lack of participation by the affected party (or government representative) in balancing costs and benefits raises special ethical concerns. A formula that was developed by the Ford Motor Company concerning accidents involving fuel leakage and fire with resultant loss of life and serious burn injuries is used as an example of both the imprecision of the method and the distinctive factors of the decision process that raise special ethical considerations. The paper examines why the for‐profit‐decision is distinct, what the special ethical considerations are, and concludes with a discussion of several alternative procedures to monitor the use of cost/benefit analysis so that it would be an effective business tool while at the same time the individual is provided maximum pro

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01401.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY