ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00123.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00124.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00125.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00126.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00127.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Several recent nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have utilized broadened Reactor Safety Study (RSS) component failure rate population variability curves to compensate for such things as expert “overvaluation bias” in the estimates upon which the curves are based.A simple two‐components of variation empirical Bayes model is proposed for use in estimating the between‐expert variability curve in the presence of such biases. Under certain conditions this curve is a population variability curve. Comparisons are made with the existing method.The popular procedure appears to be generally much more conservative than the empirical Bayes method in removing such biases. In one case the broadened curve based on the popular method is more than two orders of magnitude broader than the empirical Bayes curve. In another case it is found that the maximum justifiable degree of broadening of the RSS curve is to increase α from 5% to 12%, which is significantly less than the 20% value recommended in the popular

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00128.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The benefits and costs of automobile safety policies are compared using a methodology which explicitly quantifies the uncertainties. The policies addressed include both voluntary and compulsory manual belt usage, nondetachable passive (automatic) seat belts, and air bags. Estimates of the effectiveness and usage rates of these alternatives were obtained in the form of subjective probability distributions from eight experts. Their opinions were combined using equal weighting. The direct economic costs of the technologies were also estimated probabilistically. The number of lives saved and the net benefits of the policies were calculated probabilistically for a range of values of lifesaving. Probabilistic computations and sensitivity analysis were performed by the Demos modelling system using Monte Carlo simulation. The results are highly uncertain and quite sensitive to the value of lifesaving. Nevertheless, they imply that repeal of the passive‐restraint standard is defensible according to the net‐benefit criterion only if a relatively low value is assigned to lifesaving. The degree of uncertainty emphasizes the potential value of demonstration programs to obtain better informat

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00129.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A study of driver behavior before and after a mandatory seat belt use law in Newfoundland found that the benefits of such legislation are not reduced by riskier driving, as has been suggested by some theorists. On average, belt use in Newfoundland increased from 16% of drivers before the law to 77% after the law. At the same time, the quality of driving changed very little when compared to control groups of Nova Scotia drivers, who were not subject to the law and whose belt use rates did not change. In only one situation did Newfoundland drivers differ from the control group in Nova Scotia: after the belt law, drivers in Newfoundland became relatively more cautious (slower) in their speeds on four‐lane expressways. These data confirm the results of earlier less controlled studies that also found no changes in driving behavior following nonvoluntary changes in occupant protection. Since the “risk‐compensation” hypothesis predicts such changes, it seems to have no merit in explaining changes in fatalities and injuries after occupant protection legi

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00130.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines taxonomies for classifying risks and conflicts about risky technologies. First, we describe six levels of conflict that represent various “ shades of gray” between purely factual and purely value laden conflicts in technology disputes. Subsequently, we survey several recent taxonomies of risks and hazards that were at least partly intended to clarify the nature of the public conflicts about technologies and their risks. After pointing out that non‐risk features frequently shape technology debates, we develop a taxonomy of the disputes themselves, based on a collection of 162 cases. Our taxonomy of technological controversies is related to the recent risk taxonomies and to the different levels of conflict. It turns out that the different technological disputes create quite different levels of conflict ranging from mainly factual (consumer products, drugs) to extremely value laden (nuclear power, genetic engineering). Depending on the type of controversy and level of conflict we suggest alternative conflict management strat

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00131.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Scientists disagree in their risk analyses because they use intuitive judgments to generalize results from the laboratory to circumstances not yet studied. If this assertion is correct, techniques intended to reduce intuitive judgments and increase analytical cognition should reduce scientific dispute. The results of a test case involving allegedly high risk and sharp dispute among scientists are described.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00132.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY