摘要:

AbstractA procedure is developed for estimating the interevent time distribution of a stationary renewal process that uses only data in the form of counts (the number of events occurring in each of several adjacent disjoint intervals) that are predominantly zeros and ones. Some properties of the procedure are derived, and the procedure's performance is assessed via Monte Carlo simulation.

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the question of the stability of automatic stabilizers in the United States. Using a test suggested by Brown, Durbin and Evans, the analysis suggests that the magnitude of automatic stabilization of economic activity afforded by personal tax receipts has remained virtually invariant over the period 1939–1985. The automatic stabilization effectiveness of transfer payments, however, has increased, especially since 1964. This is attributed to the implementaton of various Great Society Programs beginning in 196

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes an intriguing use of two relatively new statistical procedures, the bootstrap and non‐stationary Markov modelling, to obtain confidence intervals for the design low‐flow parameter, of great interest to hydrologists. The procedure described is applied to the stream‐flow data gathered over more than 50 years from six gauging sites in Georgia, and is found to yield confidence intervals which are typically shorter than those given by traditional me

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractAn expert system is a computer program that is designed to solve problems at a level comparable to that of a human expert in a given domain. Often expert systems require a representation of uncertainty. This paper highlights some of the key developments in the history of representing uncertainty in expert systems. An uncertainty representation called belief networks is then introduced and its use in expert systems is motivated. The paper concludes with a discussion of current directions in belief network research.

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSerious adverse reactions to a drug usually occur too rarely to be identified in the clinical trials required to demonstrate efficacy before the drug can be put on the market. Instead, they are generally first encountered in the uncontrolled world of everyday clinical practice, and the industrial and national regulatory agencies that are responsible for drug safety must rely for their first indications of a possible drug‐adverse event connection on case reports submitted to them by practitioners who observe an occurrence of the event in one of their patients taking the drug. A typical situation in the work of these agencies finds a group of experts assembled around a table reviewing a small series of case reports (perhaps as small as one!) that link a particular drug with a particular type of adverse event. The experts want to determine whether, for each case in their series, the available evidence indicates that the drug caused the adverse event to occur. How are they to proceed? This paper outlines an approach to this problem, based on the use of subjective probabilit

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050108

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050110

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050111

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY