ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00001

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study is concerned with the impact of an actual forecast of total water supply available (TWSA) made by the Bureau of Reclamation for irrigators in the Yakima Valley (Washington). Estimates of TWSA (legally calculated by combining natural flow estimates, water storage, and other sources, i.e., return flow) were issued in February 1977, suggesting that less than half of the long‐term average water supply would be available for the coming irrigation season. The Bureau allocated the estimated TWSA as follows: those with nonproratable (senior) water rights were to get 98% of their normal water allocation, while those with proratable (junior) rights were to receive about 6%. The TWSA estimate and subsequent water allocations prompted irrigation districts, as well as individual farmers and federal, state, and local government agencies, to take a variety of measures they might not otherwise have taken. By May 1977 the Bureau realized that there was more water in the system than they had expected and that some of their assumptions had in fact distorted their projections of TWSA. Many farmers took legal action against the Bureau to recover costs they claimed were incurred by their responses to the erroneous water supply projections. This study raises questions about societal responses to seasonal water supply estimates and about the benefits to society of good forecasts as well as the costs of erroneous ones. It also raises the issue of who, if anyone, should bear the responsibility for the societal implications of such forecast

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00003

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Three criteria for evaluating the possible performance of water resource systems are discussed. These measures describe how likely a system is to fail (reliability), how quickly it recovers from failure (resiliency), and how severe the consequences of failure may be (vulnerability). These criteria can be used to assist in the evaluation and selection of alternative design and operating policies for a wide variety of water resource projects. The performance of a water supply reservoir with a variety of operating policies illustrates their use.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00014

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

When water resource systems investments are made there is little assurance that the predicted performance will coincide with the actual performance. Robustness is proposed as a measure of the likelihood that the actual cost of a proposed project will not exceed some fraction of the minimum possible cost of a system designed for the actual conditions that occur in the future. The robustness criterion is illustrated by its application to the planning of water supply systems in southwestern Sweden.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00021

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Concurrent advances in statistics and biology have introduced similar concepts to these disciplines: the use of robust estimators and the investigation of resilient ecosystems, respectively. This paper and those following in this series explore the application of these concepts of water resource systems. The emphasis here is on the concept of a resilient water resource system, or one which does not respond precipitously to a major ‘surprise’ during the course of its economic life. The general flatness of the response surface in the vicinity of the global optimum is explored, leading to suggestions for selection of small‐, intermediate‐, and large‐scale system design. The conclusions indicate that systems characterized by a small number of design options are somewhat more brittle and are more sensitive to optimization procedures, while systems which contain significant redundancies are relatively insensitive to the identification of global optima and lend themselves more readily to negotiations in the institutional and politica

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00027

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The concept of resilience of a water resource system is explored, and a few definitions are suggested and compared. These are based on the time required to pass from one system state to another and involve the passage to or from a state defined as failure. Some of the definitions involve probability of recovery from failure to some acceptable state within a specified time interval; thus the system's dynamics and standards are explicitly included.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00033

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A few of the resilience indices described in an earlier paper in this series are calculated for several reservoir configurations which constitute a set of sample plans for a river basin. Basin characteristics are introduced to estimate proposed surrogates of system resilience without the necessity of performing long and expensive simulation studies; these simulations are necessary to develop resilience indices for the sample basins and to compare them to a few conventional ranking functions. The objective is to determine if conventional indices replicate information contained in resilience indices and the extent to which either or both of these can be estimated from basin geometry. While imperfect, the results are encouraging and suggest areas for continuing work in the mapping of basin characteristics and configuration into performance indices.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00041

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Canonical correlation analysis is used to formulate linear estimates of independent or orthogonal (incremental) information on the performance of water resource systems. Simple economic and resilience indicators are compared, and for the particular configurations chosen in this paper the replicated and independent information sets are explained in terms of the connectivity of the various reservoirs. The canonical correlations are relatively high, indicating that there is significant replication of information; a taxonomy is developed which suggests those basin and structural characteristics which would indicate less replication and consequently improved description of system performance. The procedure is based on simulation studies reported in an earlier paper in this series.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00051

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

An optimization model is generally not a perfect representation of a complex real world planning problem. Optimization models, however, can be used to generate alternatives that are good and different so that analysts and decision makers can examine a wide range of alternatives to gain insight and understanding. Modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) techniques have been designed to serve this purpose. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the capabilities of the Hop, Skip, Jump (HSJ) method, a random method, and a branch and bound/screening (BBS) method for generating good and different alternative solutions. These three methods are illustrated using an example water resources planning problem represented by a mixed integer programing model. Each method yields sets of alternatives that are different from each other, but for each method the alternatives are different in different ways. Given that all three methods are efficient, it may be most fruitful to use more than one method and thereby to consider alternatives that are not only different, but different in different ways.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00058

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Optimizing the use of an exhaustible resource is a special case of the problem of storing a resource available as a periodic function of time. An extension of Hotelling's rule describes optimal storage policies: When water is in storage, its price should rise at the rate of interest, except that with contents at capacity the price must go up faster than the rate of interest. When contents are exhausted the price rises no more quickly than the rate of interest, and it must fall at some time. A rule is given for optimal storage capacity, and a version of Hotelling's rule is found for approximately optimal policies.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i001p00065

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY