ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00395.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00396.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The dominating characteristic of most economic time series is the trend and the basie problem in the theory of trend movements consist in discovering the basie causes of long‐term changes in the series. The relevance for the theory of economic growth is the determination of economic growth and the extent to which it can be influenced by economic policy. It is commonly believed that, since national product is perhaps our best measure of economic achievement, we may best denne economic growth as a sustained inerease in aggregate national product or national income. Studies of economic growth almost invariably treat longterm change in the national product as the most basic index of national economic achievement and associate other variables with it as causes and effeets. Whereas the theory of trend movements helps to explain the rising movement of certain economic variables; it also determines the influence of such factors as population growth. Perhaps it also creates a better foundation for the analysis of economic dynamics. Abramovitz (1959) has emphasized the need for empirical studies that can give meaning to secular changes in the rate of growth of national product or national incom

ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00397.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn this paper, the expected return‐variance of return hypothesis of investment behavior is applied to the problem ot the wealth‐holder's choice of the maturity distributions of his assets and liabilities. It is assumed that the only asset forms available to the wealth‐holder are bonds homogeneous in all respects except: the dates on which they promise with certainty to pay their face values plus interest in a single lump sum. Bonds are assumed to be available from a continuous spectrm of maturities in infinitely divisible denominations. The wealth‐holder is assuined, in addition, to make risky forecasts of the future level of interest rates.Under these assumptions, the wealth‐holder's networth is a random variable with given mean and variance. Expected net‐worth and its variance are shown to be functions of a set of moments describing the distributions by maturity date of the wealth‐holder assets and liabilities, i. e., the wealth‐holder views the maturity distributions of his assets and liabilities as statistical frequency functions capable of being described by a set of statistical moments. These moments are then treated as the wealth‐holder's decision variables to be adjusted to maximize a utility function over expected net‐worth and its variance. Optima 1 values of these moments then describe the optimal maturity profile of the wealth‐h

ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00398.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00399.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0026-1386    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-999X.1966.tb00400.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1966

数据来源: WILEY