摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper re‐examines Duverger's hypothesis about the ‘multiplicative tendency’ of the electoral system of proportional representation. The data cover six countries over time, and the change of the electoral system to PR is conceived as an ‘intervention’ whose impact on the party system is assessed by time‐series techniques following the logic of ‘interrupted time‐series quasi‐experiments’. In two countries the results are altogether negative, in one positive. In the three other cases, PR does not increase the degree to which the party system is fractionalized, but increases the number of parties, essentially by adding small ones. The support for the hypothesis is at most partial and, in addition, it is argued that the observed effect is syste

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00105.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTRational‐choice models of voter behaviour are concerned with two basic questions: what stimulates citizens to vote, and, if a citizen votes, for whom does he/she vote? In this study, aggregate voter behaviour is modelled as a system of equations with three endogenous variables related to these questions. The parameters of this system are estimated with pooled cross‐sectional, time‐series data on the 1929–69 Northern Irish Parliamentary elections. After appropriate controls are included and within the constraints imposed by these data, evidence is found which supports the applicability of rational‐choice models to these elections. On the related issue of voter decision rules, evidence is found which supports the calculus‐of‐voting approach, an important component of many voting models (e.g., spatial models of candidate/party competition). Finally, the analysis highlights the major aspects of Northern Irish voter behaviour in these elections and can serve as a paradigm for the examination of similar electoral data from other poli

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00106.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe paper analyses the change and continuity in electoral support from the pre‐dictatorship period to the years following 1974. It analyses the geography of the election results both by region and by type of area, and it also examines the results of a pre‐election opinion survey in 1981 which categorized voters by age, sex, level of education, and social class. It considers the extent to which the recent support given to the Socialists parallels that of the old Centre Union party in 1963 and 1964, and it also examines a similar continuity in voting for the main right‐wing party. It concludes that there are notable parallels, though it also highlights the exceptional uniformity of recent Socialist su

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00107.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe application of a model of Communist voting to two rather different geographical and historical contexts yielded varying empirical results. The model, composed of traditional socioeconomic explanatory variables as well as organizational and historical variables, proved fruitful in the Norwegian case, much less so in the Catalan case. This difference in explanatory power may be understood in terms of varying levels of modernization. Models of electoral behaviour should be more sensitive to developments of this kind. Higher flexibility in the use of models is thus desirable. What is needed is a battery of models of electoral behaviour, and a more conscious attitude on the part of electoral sociologists to the implications of time and space for the choice of theoretical approach.

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00108.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis article is concerned with the relationship between the supporters of new social movements (peace, ecology, and anti‐nuclear power) and the Green Party in contemporary Germany. In theoretical terms the research interest lies in the question of the extent to which the new social movements in Germany are responsible for a change in the nature of the party system. Particular attention is given to the historical and electoral ties as well as the value system and the ideological orientation of the Green voters and the followers of new social movements. Their over‐all impact on future party system is still controversial: on the one hand, the Greens could prepare the way for a dealignment, and on the other hand they could determine the process of realignment within the German party sys

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00109.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis article argues that the responses of political parties to social change are mediated by ideology, which offers only a limited range of options. What these are, how and why they are limited, and in what ways they may account for recent political developments are the main themes of the article. They are treated in the context of a general review of the relations between ideologies, parties and change, using a modified model of the traditional Left–Right spectrum based on the concept of a ‘relative and dynamic Centre’. The resulting mode of analysis, here called ‘idealectics’, is illustrated with reference to Western and especially British experience over the last tw

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00110.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper attempts to apply and test some of the major propositions advanced by the ‘consociational school’ of democratic theory to the case of a Third World country, Kenya. These propositions concern both the specific, highly fragmented ‘plural’ social bases of politics and particular institutional arrangements (such as a ‘grand coalition’, proportional representation, etc.), Kenya is shown to be an interesting, though somewhat ‘deviant’, case in this regard. The analysis is based on available published sources, official documents and data from a general population survey conducted by the author. The concluding section discusses some of the inherent constraints in the Kenyan case and indicates some of the more general limitations of the concept of consociat

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00111.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe inheritance and continuity of party identification is usually traced to the predominant influence of parental political socialization. This paper applies multivariate analysis to Australian and British data to examine (1) the relative importance of parents' partisanship and social milieu on the respondent's own partisanship and (2) the influence of parentsapos; partisanship on the preferences of the respondent in later life. The analysis shows that, in both countries, the social milieu of the family has little or no effect on the preferences of the children and it is the partisanship of the parents that is the dominant factor. In addition, we show that the influence of parents' partisanship is limited to early adulthood and to the first partisanship of the child; it has little or no direct influence on the respondent's subsequent electoral behaviour.

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00112.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1985.tb00113.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY