摘要:

AbstractSeven experiments examined how information used to screen options is used subsequently in evaluating the survivors before a choice of the best survivor is made and showed the following. (1) In general, information receiver early in the task had a smaller impact upon pre‐choice evaluations of options than information received later, whether or not screening had taken place. (2) However, early information had virtually no impact upon pre‐choice evaluations when various events partitioned the task into two distinct parts. This was called the ‘task‐partitioning effect’. This effect was, however, labile and could be eliminated by repeating the early information at the time that the pre‐choice evaluations were made. (3) In contrast, when the partitioning event consisted specifically of screening out unattractive options, early information had virtually no impact on evaluations and its repetition did not increase its use. This was called the ‘screening effect’. This effect was observed even when someone other than the subject carried ou

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecent research has suggested that people prefer to use the most diagnostic available information as the basis for their choices and decisions, and are most confident in those decisions when information is highly diagnostic. However, the effect of information diagnosticity on the need for additional information has yet to be investigated; that is, in an optional stopping task, will the amount of information requested depend upon information diagnosticity? Three models of the role of diagnosticity in information use were examined; expected value, a confidence criterion, and information cost. Subjects attempted to categorize stimuli with the aid of information of varying costs and diagnosticity levels. They requested more information when it was obtained at a low cost. More importantly, across cost conditions, subjects consistently requested greater amounts of information when that information was of a low diagnosticity. These data seem most consistent with use of a confidence criterion that is adjusted for information costs.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe purpose of this research is to assess the extent to which judgmental forecasts are improved by having more contextual and technical knowledge. Contextual information is knowledge gained by practitioners through experience on the job, consisting of general forecasting experience in the industry as well as specific product knowledge. Technical knowledge is knowledge about data analysis and formal forecasting procedures, including information on how to analyze data judgmentally. We directly compared judgmental forecasts of business practitioners with those generated by students, using 22 real‐world time series. The practitioners had considerable contextual but no technical knowledge. The students had no contextual but two different levels of technical knowledge. We also generated forecasts with statistical methods to benchmark performance. Results show that contextual knowledge is particularly important in making good judgmental forecasts, while technical knowledge has little value. Practitioner forecasts are better than student forecasts in almost all comparisons. A decisive factor affecting forecast performance appears to be data variability, measured by the coefficient of variation of the time‐series data. As the variability of a time series increases, the performance of all forecasts deteriorates, but judgmental forecasts by practitioners become more preferable. Statistical methods have difficulty achieving reasonable forecasts when the data are more variable, whereas judgemental forecasts reinforced by contextual information do relatively well. Data variability is one explanation for the mixed findings of past studies, relative to how well statistical techniques compare with judgment as a forecasting met

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTwo experiments were performed to determine whether judgments of the relative chances of two independent events occurring are biased by constant outcome values contingent on the events when the uncertainties are specified by linguistic expressions (e.g.doubtful). In Experiment 1, subjects directly judged the relative chances of the two events, of which one was represented by a spinner and the other by a linguistic probability expression. In Experiment 2, only linguistic probability expressions were used to describe the two events and a betting procedure was used. A bias was evident in both studies, such that the relative judgments tended to favour the event with the positive rather than the negative contingent outcome. The bias was smaller for the low‐ than for the high‐probability phrases. Individual differences were great, with the bias appearing strongly in only about one‐third of the population. Theoretical implications of the present and related results are disc

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050101

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY