摘要:

AbstractThis research examines the appropriateness of confidence (i.e., subjective probability judgments) in knowledge associated with decisions and actions of social importance. One hundred and thirty seven participants completed a 50 item questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the two leading candidates in the 1988 presidential election in the U.S.A. Ninety one of the respondents completed the questionnaire one week prior to the election, whereas the other 46 completed the questionnaire on election day shortly after voting. After each item in the questionnaire, all respondents indicated whether or not the item content represented a reason why they voted (or intended to vote) for or against the candidate to whom the item referred. Within‐person results indicated that, in comparison to items that were not cited as reasons for voting intentions or voting behavior, items endorsed as reasons were characterized by better accuracy and resolution, but worse overconfidence. Between groups, decision makers were significantly more accurate and better calibrated than those who had not made a decision between the candidates. Implications of inappropriate confidence on decision making effectiveness are discusse

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes a method of quantifying subjective opinion about a normal linear regression model. Opinion about the regression coefficients and experimental error is elicited and modeled by a multivariate probability distribution (a Bayesian conjugate prior distribution). The distribution model is richly parameterized and various assessment tasks are used to estimate its parameters. These tasks include the revision of opinion in the light of hypothetical data, the assessment of credible intervals, and a task commonly performed in cue‐weighting experiments. A new assessment task is also introduced. In addition, implementation of the method in an interactive computer program is described and the method is illustrated with a practical exampl

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper reports on experiments which test whether factors such as regret or disappointment influence taxpayer compliance decisions. Previous tests of regret and disappointment theory have been based upon the common‐ratio effect in which probabilities vary while outcomes are held fixed. In contrast, our experiments involved trials in which the outcomes were allowed to vary. Previous tests had mainly found evidence of regret effects and to a lesser extent were supportive of disappointment. In contrast, we were able to reject simple theories of both regret and disappointment. A second experiment produced evidence which indicates that whether or not rejected risky alternatives are resolved has no significant influence on subjects' choices. One would expect that regret could only occur when a subject learns the outcome of a non‐chosen option. Hence this result can be seen as evidence against regret theory. We shall argue that there is a possible interpretation of regret theory which is compatible with this res

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe major goals of this research are to (a) study professionals engaging in dynamic, representative task conditions, (b) apply lens model theory to these conditions, (c) learn how judgments are changed in response to changing conditions, and (d) utilize a hierarchical judgment model to investigate the judgment process from perception of data to final judgment. The results indicate that (a) agreement regarding inferred cue values is modest, not because of differences in perception of proximal, directly observed cue values but because of differences in inferences drawn from them, (b) agreement in probability judgments is higher when inferred cue values are specified, (c) little change in judgments occurred over time, and (d) confidence increased over time. The results regarding agreement and accuracy over time were ambiguous.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040101

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY