摘要:

AbstractA descriptive model of choice between simple lotteries is proposed. According to the model, people combine 'absolute' and 'comparative' strategies in choice situations. Three experimental tests of the model are reported. In its limited domain, the model appears superior to Prospect Theory on qualitative grounds, and to 1‐parameter versions of Expected Utility Theory on both qualitative and quantitative ground

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractProspective hindsight involves generating an explanation for a future event as if it had already happened; i.e., one goes forward in time, and then looks back. In order to examine how shifts in perspective might influence people's perceptions of events, we investigated two possible factors: temporal perspective (whether an event is set in the future or past) and uncertainty (whether the event's occurrence is certain or uncertain). In the first experiment, temporal perspective showed little influence while outcome uncertainty strongly affected the nature of explanations for events. Explanations for sure events tended to be longer, to contain a higher proportion of episodic reasons, and to be expressed in past tense. Evidence from the second experiment supports the view that uncertainty mediates not the amount of time spent explaining, but rather subjects' choice of explanation type. The implications of these findings for the use of temporal perspective in decision aiding are discussed.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper concerns study of the credibility of human sources of evidence and its relation to the inferential value of testimony they provide. From a certain view of 'knowledge' in epistemology comes the suggestion that credibility assessment can be construed as a cascaded inference in which attributes of human source credibility are identified. Scholarship from evidence law in jurisprudence suggests an evidential basis for credibility assessment in terms of these attributes. Applying Bayes' rule to this cascaded inference offers a way of expressing and combining credibility‐related beliefs in the process of assessing the inferential value of evidenc

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020101

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY