ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractLimited resources (e.g. jobs research grants, welfare, attention) are often allocated to those who desire them according to assessments of merit or deservingness made by presumably neutral judges. The resulting adjudicated contests are, in principle, more fair than other means of allocation: market economies, violence, privilege, kickbacks, etc. However, as adjudicated contests evolve they tend to attract an increasing number of qualified contestants. If resources do not expand to reward these contestants, additional tests of merit or deservingness are often invoked to make increasingly small contestant discriminations. These additional tests are shown to be breeding grounds of invidious selection vitiating the principle of fairness that characterizes the contests in which they are employed. The causes and consequences of invidious selection are discussed, as are some possibilities of their avoidance.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractImage theory has been proposed as a descriptive model of decision making. The present work examines the sufficiency of a simple counting rule as a theoretical description of the assessment of compatibility, a central construct in the theory. The research was done in the context of executives assessing the compatibility between plans for reaching a specified goal and the principles that guide the operation of their respective firms. First, for each firm an expert‐system simulation was performed using Image Theory as the ‘expert’, the firm's guiding principles as the criteria, and the counting rule as the assessment procedure. This yielded a simulated compatibility assessment for each plan for each firm. Executives from each firm also assessed the compatibility of each plan with their own firm's operating principles. The assessments from the simulation were then compared with those made by the executives. The results support the descriptive sufficiency of the simple counting rule and recommend its tentative incorporation into image t

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper reports on a direct experimental test of the original version of Regret Theory using a total of 64 subjects in three groups. The experiment, which was run on PCs, was designed to elicit from subjects' responses the two key elements in this theory: namely the basic utility function, and the regret/rejoicing function. It was also designed to provide a quick direct test of the implications of the theory. We found that the evidence refuted this original version of Regret Theory.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010108

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010101

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY