摘要:

This article develops a simple model of economic decisions under uncertainty and applies it to several hypothetical decision problems. The main applications are to betting, since this context can be explained without much economics background and the analysis of betting has some practical implications for economic analysis, as well as posing some interesting intellectual problems. Statisticians have long used gambling situations as checks on the reasonableness of tentative conclusions and as sources of hints for further useful developments. This article conveys some of the flavor of economic applications to statisticians and possibly stimulates additional interchanges with economists. For economists, present model's principal addition to discussions in the current literature is that the decision maker is permitted to start with a random prospect rather than with fixed initial wealth and his current prospect may or may not be independent of the random ventures he contemplates.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480122

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article studies the effect of official seasonal adjustment procedures on the relations between variables. By considering time-invariant linear filters, and in particular a linear approximation to the Census Method II adjustment program, the effect of adjusting one or both of the variables in a distributed lag relation is examined, and the distortions which can arise are described. Applying the actual (nonlinear) adjustment procedure to artificial data indicates that at least for the particularx-series used, the results of the linear filter analysis provide a good guide to the behavior of estimates obtained from data adjusted by the official method.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480123

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Jury size, majorities required for acquittal or conviction and correctness of juror decisions in criminal trials are studied. The article draws heavily on ideas presented in a previous article [1] which updated a model suggested by Poisson. Briefly, a model is developed and then examined, employing data from Kalven and Zeisel [2] on the American legal system. Comparisons of the American experience with French data from the early 19th century are made through the use of the model. Recent U. S. Supreme Court decisions in criminal trials regarding jury size and the relaxation of unanimity for decisions in criminal trials make these studies pertinent.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480124

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The case weights used by the Federal District Courts are evaluated in conceptual terms and in terms of the sample design used recently to reestimate the weights. The weights are shown to be conceptually inferior to another set and to be seriously underestimated. A closed form expression is derived for the underestimation bias and is used to show the probable magnitude of the underestimation.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480125

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Comparison data on SAT were collected on pairs of examinees in three samples for later use in detecting instances of willful copying. In each sample the answer sheet of each examinee was compared with the answer sheet of every other examinee to determine the expected degree of similarity among answer sheets for “honest” examinees. Eight detection indices were developed and bivariate distributions were run for possible operational use in making future judgments regarding examinees who were actually suspected of copying. The results of a series of analyses permitted the elimination of six of the eight indices. The remaining two have been used successfully at Educational Testing Service since 1970.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480126

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article develops multiple-choice test scoring rules, concentrating on Bayes rules and their frequency theory analogs, empirical Bayes rules. Conditions are given for empirical Bayes estimates to lie in the probability simplex. The misinformation model is considered in detail. It is shown that ranking by raw scores is equivalent to ranking by Bayes scores when the loss function increases with error and the sampling distribution has the monotone likelihood ratio property. Application of the techniques is made to data from a multiple-choice test given to students of an elementary statistics course.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480127

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article is concerned with the survey problem of estimating category probabilities when some of the subjects respond to sensitive questions in the “don't know,” “no opinion” or “undecided” category, to avoid stating their true beliefs. The suggested approach draws on the information obtained from subjects who respond in unambiguous categories on the main question of interest, and on subsidiary questions posed to the same subjects (possibly in the same survey). This information is then used to construct Bayesian procedures for classifying the respondents in the “undecided” category on the main question into one of the unambiguous main question categories. The category probabilities for the main question are then estimated from the posterior distribution which accounts for the classified “undecided” respondents. Means, variances, and credibility intervals are provided for the desired category proportions.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480128

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article applies the counting rule strategy to the problem of estimating the proportion of population elements with a specified characteristic based on a sample of enumeration units. The distribution of population elements among the enumeration units is a function of the counting rule which specifies the conditions for linking population elements to enumeration units. The counting rule strategy involves the selection of the counting rule which minimizes the variance of the estimate for fixed cost. The strategy is illustrated by a problem which involves estimating the proportion of incorrect statistical statements in the text of a report based on a sample of lines of text.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480129

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article presents a number of parametric and nonparametric approaches to the analysis of nonexperimental heart transplant data from the Stanford Heart Transplantation Program, and attempts to come to some conclusion regarding whether heart transplantation is life-extending.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480130

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The problem considered is how to compare time-to-response data for different groups when the group membership of an individual can be arbitrarily varied during a study. Modified life tables can be constructed which reflect such changes in an individual's status, and associated measures of relative risk and statistical significance calculated. This is illustrated with survival data for heart-transplant patients, for which a patient can transfer from the nontransplanted to the transplanted group. Alternative procedures are given in which distinctive groups are defined for each transplant day.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1974.10480131

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1974

数据来源: Taylor