ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00652.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIf a country with a balance of payments problem, that is, insufficient foreign exchange receipts to meet foreign exchange requirements, seeks to remedy the situation by currency devaluation, things may get worse before they get better. This so‐called J‐curve effect occurs if the domestic‐currency prices of exports are sticky, whether because they are cost based or subject to longer term contracts, so that export prices in foreign currency fall. Until favourable volume effects outweigh the unfavourable price effect, the balance of payments deteriorates. Such a J‐curve effect should be distinguished both from the longer term erosion of the beneficial effects of devaluation as domestic costs and the prices of non‐tradables rise and from the apparent J‐curve due to the ‘valuation effect’. If the current account is in deficit before devaluation, as will usually be the case, devaluation will widen the deficit in domestic currency because domestic‐currency imports rise by a larger amount than exports. This is a pure valuation effect, of no significance for external balance. But it is liable to lead to unduly pessimistic judgements about the effectiveness of devaluation. In Australia during 1985–86, the current account deficit increased by $A3.5 billion, despite substantial depreciation of the $A. The main reason was a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade which is estimated to have worsened the current account by $A4.25 billion. Most of this was exogenous, though J‐curve effects may have made a contribution. In addition, the valuation effect contributed a further, illusory, widening of the deficit, valued in domestic currency, by over $A1 billion. To avoid misleading inferences from the valuation effect, it is suggested that the balance of payments should, if possible, be presente

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00653.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe article traces the origins of the Australian economic crisis of the 1980s, and suggests that many problems can be related to the special character of the country's long‐term economic development. The dominance of two exceptional commodities, wool and gold, created a remarkably high standard of living in the nineteenth century. But there were dangers. High labour productivity was achieved without the underpinnings of modem technology, and it was difficult to achieve sustained industrialisation from a high income base in a small, open society. Further, the efficiency of traditional commodity production helped create an inward‐looking urban‐industrial sector. Gradually fundamental change in the composition of global trade has marginalised Australia's traditional export sector. The urgent need now is for an aggressive exploitation of the country's considerable resources in science and technology. If this is achieved the 1980s could see a basic shift in Australia's economic hi

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00654.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA system for transferring funds electronically at the point of sale is a substitute for other means by which funds can be transferred. The gateways in the EFT‐POS system being implemented by the principal Australian banks appear to deny full participation to other financial intermediaries. But the gateways may be needed if those responsible for the innovations are to secure an adequate return on their investment. Current bargaining among retailers, financial intermediaries and Telecom will determine the extent of the return which will accrue to the principal bank

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00655.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractUsing the methodology of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Boehm and Moore (1984) have recently constructed leading and coincident indexes of Australian cyclical economic growth. The present article examines the reliability of the leading index by investigating the coherence between these two measures of economic activity at different cycle‐lengths using the technique of cross‐spectral analy

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00656.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00657.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00658.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00659.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1987.tb00660.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY