摘要:

At the end of the first quarter of 1977 the available economic indicators, while as usual far from univocal, still give cause for serious concern about the health and direction of the Australian economy. With no significant expansionary factors operating in the economy in 1977 other than the revival in the mining industry and in some aspects of business investment, and the various arms of economic policy being set almost entirely in a restrictive stance, aggregate output would appear to be either flat or declining modestly at the present time. On the basis of a continuation of present policies we would anticipate growth in real non‐farm GDP of only 2 to 3 per cent in both 1976–77 and 1977–78, with unemployment continuing to increase until well into 1978. Given the stimulus to inflation arising from the 1976 devaluation and from the wage effects of the Medibank changes, the rate of increase in the consumer price index would seem likely to be 14 to 15 per cent in 1977, even if a partial wage indexation policy could be sustained and whether or not a one quarter wage/price deferment comes into effect. But government pressure on the Arbitration Commission for a reduction in real wages has placed the wage indexation system in jeopardy, and there is now considerable uncertainty about the methods of wage fixation which will obtain in 1977–78. This article surveys some aspects of recent developments and considers some policy options available to the gov

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00701.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The recovery from the 1974–75 recession in the international economy has proven to be particularly difficult to forecast. Thus while the second half of 1975 saw continuing doubts as to whether recovery was underway it became appaient by early 1976 that these doubts had been misplaced, and that a relatively rapid recovery of the International economy was in progress, particularly in the United States and In Japan. Forecasts for the second half of 1976 reflected this new found optimism. These forecasts were, however, again to be disappointed when It became apparent that an unexpected and widespread deceleration of growth was emerging as 1976 progressed, raising the spectre of further increases in unemployment. The reasons for this retreat from recovery are of particular significance to a survey of the international economy at the present time, since they bear on the question whether the deceleration of growth in 1976 lepresents a transitory period of adjustment in an international economy in which the force:; of expansion still exist or whether it indicates the growth of 1975 and early 1976 Itself to have been unsustainabl

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00702.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00703.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00704.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00705.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00706.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1977.tb00707.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1977

数据来源: WILEY