摘要:

This paper applies a multi-attribute evaluation model to the choice between local area network (LAN) topologies in an office automation project. A computerized decision support system, JustLAN, has been developed to facilitate sensitivity studies. It incorporates the following features: (1) a group-participative process for data acquisition, (2) the development of ratio-scaled importance weights for the attributes, (3) detailed cost estimation worksheets for the determination of life-cycle costs for feasible alternatives, (4) a graphical assessment of tradeoffs between monetary and nonmonetary considerations, and (5) the capability to conduct on-line sensitivity analyses to test the “robustness” of the recommended alternative to estimation errors. In a sample application of the procedure, involving a LAN selection problem in a government office building, an inferior alternative would have been selected if results of traditional present worth analysis had been followed. Only through the use of multi-attribute decision techniques and sensitivity studies was the preferred alternative identified.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903060

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Monte-Carlo simulation was used in a capital budgeting decision involving the purchase of a wood-fired cogeneration plant. Two alternative capacities, 6-MW and 9-MVV plants, were considered in the analysis using net present value as the evaluation criterion. Risk profiles were generated for both investments as well as for the mean and variance of returns. When cash flows were approximated using annual cash flows, the resulting risk profiles did not produce a clear choice. However, using more realistic monthly cash flows, the 6-MW plant showed both a higher return and less risk than the 9-MW facility. The difference in the results arises from the fact that the annual-period model masks the effects of the inherent monthly variability of some cash flows and timing of cash savings. Consequently, the use of probabilistic, monthly-period models is recommended over the annual-period model in this as well as in other investments that incorporate a large degree of seasonal variability.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903061

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A rigorous but intuitive framework is used to construct the Pratt-Arrow measures of absolute and relative risk aversion as exact measures of aversion to a general form of mean preserving spreads for any twice differentiable utility function. The derivation applies even to distributions that have undefined second or higher moments.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903062

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In this case study four actual energy efficiency projects are analyzed with two traditional engineering economy capital budgeting methods - internal rate of return and payback period - and the results compared with those obtained using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The alternative scenarios of the future states-of-the-world necessary for the latter are based on information available in Department of Energy reports. The traditional and CAPM approaches result in different economic conclusions for some of the projects. These differences are analyzed and the implications for certain types of improvement projects and equipment replacement problems as well as financial decision-making in general are discussed.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903063

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903064

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A present value approach to determine the optimum project duration is presented in this paper. The duration could be shortened (or prolonged) to minimize the total cost. Rosenblatt h Roll analyzed a similar duration shortening problem using the future value approach. We demonstrate that optimization of the future worth does not optimize the present worth. In addition, we extend the model to include bonus (or penalty) and project cash inflows, which are derived from the revenues before and after completion of the project.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903065

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper applies option pricing analysis to the problem of valuing the abandonment option of an investment proposal. The assumption is made that the abandonment option is exercisable at only one point in time in the future and that the project's vatue-in-use and its abandonment value are lognormally distributed. The model is employed to measure how the uniqueness of the project asset, as measured by the correlation between these two lognormal random variables, affects the value of the abandonment option. It is shown that the more unique the asset, or the higher the correlation, the lower is the value of the abandonment option. The model is also employed to examine the impact of increased uncertainty in these two random variables on the value of the abandonment option. The relationships are shown to be nonmonotonic. However, beyond critical thresholds, increased uncertainty in either one of the two variables enhances the value of the abandonment option.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903066

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903067

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903068

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919208903069

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor