摘要:

Many current equipment replacement/production capacity expansion decisions carry increasing amounts of performance uncertainty when the alternative processes include technical innovations. In a sequential decision making environment, post-audit information can be used to resolve this uncertainty. In this paper, we demonstrate how three-point, PERT-type estimates can be used to determine continuous prior probability distributions that incorporate the post-audit information in Bayesian revision. Further, we develop the concept of equivalent sample size to insert qualitative judgment into the decision making process. This is initially used to reflect our belief in the estimates' quality, and, subsequently, in an assessment of the quality of the observed sample data. A case study of an actual decision problem is used to illustrate the concepts.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708903172

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The widely used concept of a cash flow per project in capital budgeting has serious weaknesses when resources are shared by different projects. Accordingly, the concept of cash flow per project is not used herein. Instead, the project portfolio approach is used in which costs are considered only in the acquisition and utilization of resources; when these costs actually occur. The main conclusion from this approach is that better capital budgeting decisions can be made if the concept of cash flow per project is avoided when resources are shared.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708903173

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Cost estimation generally involves predicting labor, material, utilities or other costs over time given a small subset of factual data on “cost drivers.” Statistical models, usually of the regression form, have assisted with this projection. Artificial neural networks are non-parametric statistical estimators, and thus have potential for use in cost estimation modeling. This research examined the performance, stability and ease of cost estimation modeling using regression versus neural networks to develop cost estimating relationships (CERs). Results show that neural networks have advantages when dealing with data that does not adhere to the generally chosen low order polynomial forms, or data for which there is little a priori knowledge of the appropriate CER to select for regression modeling. However, in cases where an appropriate CER can be identified, regression models have significant advantages in terms of accuracy, variability, model creation and model examination. Both simulated and actual data sets are used for comparison.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708903174

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In their recent paper ( D. Asquith & J.E. Bethel, “Using Heuristics to Evaluate Projects: The Case of Ranking Projects by IRR,”The Engineering Economist, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Spring 1995, pp. 287-294) ), the authors propose a project ranking procedure that is supposed to mitigate the impact of cash flow overvaluation by project managers. In the current contribution, it is indicated that this procedure is based upon a project ranking approach that employs the IRR criterion in a theoretically inadequate way. The correct, incremental approach to the IRR-based project ranking is reiterated, and it is shown that if this approach is applied, then its very design reduces the impact of CF-biases on project ranking. It is also demonstrated that even if competing projects are of equal scale, they must still be ranked by incremental comparison. Finally, it is pointed out that the incremental project ranking is the proper approach regardless of which NPV-compatible profitability measure is applied.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708903175

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708903176

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919708913039

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1997

数据来源: Taylor