Some Results Concerning the Estimation of Beta Distribution Parameters in PERT
作者:
FarnumNicholas R.,
StantonLaverne W.,
期刊:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
(Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期:
Volume 38,
issue 3
页码: 287-290
ISSN:0160-5682
年代: 1987
DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.45
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: PERT;scheduling;statistics
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractThe traditional method of estimating mean activity-time in PERT analysis, as a weighted average of the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic activity-times, is examined. Based on properties of the beta distribution, it is shown that there are theoretical grounds for using this estimate for a specified range of modal activity times. Finally, a simple refinement of the estimate is suggested when the modal value lies outside this range.
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