首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis
Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis

 

作者: Hung‐po Chao,  

 

期刊: Risk Analysis  (WILEY Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 15, issue 1  

页码: 69-78

 

ISSN:0272-4332

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00094.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.

 

点击下载:  PDF (794KB)



返 回