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Surprising Inferences from Unsurprising Observations: Do Conditional Expectations Really Regress to the Mean?

 

作者: DavidC. Schmittlein,  

 

期刊: The American Statistician  (Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 43, issue 3  

页码: 176-183

 

ISSN:0003-1305

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1989.10475651

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Prior distributions;Probability mixture models;Regression to the mean

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Most social science descriptions of the statistical regression effect envision the effect as occurring toward the population mean. If individuals that initially had extreme values regress back toward the mean on subsequent observations, then as a corollary individuals who were at the population mean initially are expected tostayat the population mean. Both the regression to the mean statement and its corollary are generally false for models exhibiting a regression effect. For commonly used probability mixture models, conditional expectations of subsequent observations based on previous observations regress not to the mean, but to some other value. Examples are presented using mixtures of normal, Poisson, and binomial random variables.

 

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