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Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis

 

作者: TedG. Eschenbach,   RobertJ. Gimpel,  

 

期刊: The Engineering Economist  (Taylor Available online 1990)
卷期: Volume 35, issue 4  

页码: 305-321

 

ISSN:0013-791X

 

年代: 1990

 

DOI:10.1080/00137919008903024

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Stochastic sensitivity analysis explicitly considers the uncertainty common in engineering economy. Like simulation, the variables probability distributions are the input. The output, like deterministic sensitivity analyses, relates changing variables to changes in the model's outcome (present worth). However, the x —axis is now probabilistic so that break-even probabilities are r-axis distances. Areas represent conditional expected values and expected values of perfect information. This solid intuitive basis contrasts with a uniform pdf assumption that underlies typical sensitivity graphs. The probability metric permits relative sensitivity analysis of variables that are measured in different units. Spreadsheets easily support this method.

 

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