ABSTRACTEconomic reforms in Eastern Europe and Eastern Europe's integration into the world economy are supposed to induce fundamental changes into European trade patterns. This will affect regions in the EU differently, depending an location and specialisation. The article quantifies the impact of changing trade flows on EU regional manufacturing. Estimates are based on comparative static simulations, using an empirically calibrated computable partial equilibrium model of interregional trade. The spatial EU output pattern under status‐quo conditions is compared with an optimistic “successful reform scenario”. The article explains the model structure and its calibration, and presents results for 13 manufacturing indus