Credible conceptions and implausible probabilities
作者:
Ranald R. Macdonald,
期刊:
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
(WILEY Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 39,
issue 1
页码: 15-27
ISSN:0007-1102
年代: 1986
DOI:10.1111/j.2044-8317.1986.tb00842.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Tversky and Kahneman's demonstrations of people's inability to handle probabilities are examined in detail. The inherent ambiguity in the concept of probability and the rules of conversational logic are used to justify subjects' apparent fallacies. Moreover even in the framework of mathematical probability some of Tversky and Kahneman's subjects' behaviour is defended. The relevance of mathematical probability to everyday decisions is seen as being open to question. Conceptualizing a problem sensibly is held to be more important than having beliefs which are demonstrably consistent with a quantitative probabilistic model. The conceptualization should have regard to the sense in which probability is being used, how different possibilities should be categorized and the reliability of the presented information.
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