Calibration of Option‐Based Probability Assessments in Agricultural Commodity Markets
作者:
Paul L. Fackler,
Robert P. King,
期刊:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
(WILEY Available online 1990)
卷期:
Volume 72,
issue 1
页码: 73-83
ISSN:0002-9092
年代: 1990
DOI:10.2307/1243146
出版商: Oxford University Press
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractA method for evaluating the reliability of option‐based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept. Empirical tests using goodness‐of‐fit criteria are applied to four agricultural commodities. Results suggest that assessments in the corn and live cattle markets are reliable, but such assessments overstate the volatility of soybean prices and understate the location of hog prices.
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