Worst case analysis of sexual mixing models of HIV transmission
作者:
KaplanEdwardH.,
期刊:
The Journal of Sex Research
(Taylor Available online 1991)
卷期:
Volume 28,
issue 1
页码: 29-44
ISSN:0022-4499
年代: 1991
DOI:10.1080/00224499109551593
出版商: Taylor&Francis Group
关键词: Sexual transmission;HIV;AIDS;sexual mixing
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS depends upon the specifics of mixing between subpopulations with differing sexual activity rates. As the manner in which such mixing occurs is very difficult to observe, it is natural to consider the number of infected persons that would result from worst case mixing, that is, mixing that maximizes the number of infected persons in the population. This paper summarizes a recently developed procedure for producing a tight upper bound on the maximum number of infected persons in a population over the long run within the assumptions of a fairly general model of HIV transmission. The technique is illustrated utilizing parameters derived from studies of the AIDS epidemic in San Francisco. An example demonstrating how one might prospectively evaluate an AIDS intervention program using worst case analysis is also discussed.
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