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Sampling Procedures for Risk Simulation

 

作者: EilonSamuel,   FowkesTerence R.,  

 

期刊: Journal of the Operational Research Society  (Taylor Available online 1973)
卷期: Volume 24, issue 2  

页码: 241-252

 

ISSN:0160-5682

 

年代: 1973

 

DOI:10.1057/jors.1973.41

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractRisk simulation has become a standard alternative to the utilization of single estimates for input data to investment appraisal models. Under the risk simulation approach managers define probability distributions for relevant input factors. During this process management may consciously or subconsciously assume certain relationships between the input variables. These interdependencies are often omitted from the models, however, under the justification that they are accounted for implicitly in the values attributed to the variables by management. It is demonstrated in this paper that such omissions may lead to significant errors in the observed distributions of the selected appraisal criteria. Various forms of discriminate sampling are introduced and an example is cited for which certain discriminate schemes are shown to be more accurate than traditional independent sampling.

 

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