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Evacuation Risks: A Tentative Approach for Quantification

 

作者: M. C. Bastien,   M. Dumas,   J. Laporte,   N. Parmentier,  

 

期刊: Risk Analysis  (WILEY Available online 1985)
卷期: Volume 5, issue 1  

页码: 53-61

 

ISSN:0272-4332

 

年代: 1985

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00151.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

关键词: risk;road accident;evacuation of population;accident

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person–km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10‐8deaths per person–km and 32 10‐8injuries per person–km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10‐8deaths per person‐km and 3.29 10‐8injuries per person–km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protec

 

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