The importance of the forecast
作者:
L. R. Klein,
期刊:
Journal of Forecasting
(WILEY Available online 1984)
卷期:
Volume 3,
issue 1
页码: 1-9
ISSN:0277-6693
年代: 1984
DOI:10.1002/for.3980030102
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
关键词: Forecast;Forecasting evaluation;Implementation of forecasts
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractCareful forecasts, as accurate as possible, are central to the successful implementation of policy. There are fundamental reasons why policy makers cannot ‘play by ear’, adjusting policy quickly to each unexpected deviation in economic outcomes. Specific incidents are described where economic policy went awry because of faulty forecasts. The policy process is described in detail to show precisely where the forecast enters. Forecasting as a validation tool for establishing credibility in policy formation is analysed and discussed. Some estimated measure of forecast accuracy is presented, together with commentary on the necessary degrees of precision for successful implementation of pol
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