Probabilistic Models for Risk Assessment
作者:
Joseph Fiksel,
Donald B. Rosenfield,
期刊:
Risk Analysis
(WILEY Available online 1982)
卷期:
Volume 2,
issue 1
页码: 1-8
ISSN:0272-4332
年代: 1982
DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01397.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
关键词: probability;assessment;accidents;risk;profiles
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Recent concern with the potential for stray carbon fibers to damage electronic equipment and cause economic losses has led to the development of advanced risk‐assessment methods. Risk assessment often requires the synthesis of risk profiles which represent the probability distribution of total annual losses due to a certain set of events or activities. A number of alternative probabilistic models are presented which the authors have used to develop such profiles. Examples are given of applications of these methods to assessment of risk due to conductive fibers released from aircraft or automobile fires. These assessments usually involve a two‐stage approach: estimation of losses for several subclassifications of the overall process, and synthesis of the results into an aggregate risk profile. The methodology presented is capable of treating a wide variety of situations involving sequences of random physical eve
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