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Signals of the future? Towards the establishment of a forecasting standard using signal detection theory

 

作者: G. Lester,   H. Rothman,  

 

期刊: R&D Management  (WILEY Available online 1977)
卷期: Volume 7, issue 2  

页码: 89-96

 

ISSN:0033-6807

 

年代: 1977

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1977.tb00120.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractThe paper is an attempt to provide a basis for comparing forecasts from different sources and of different types. Heavy use of an analogy with classic signal theory and methods is made. A measure of a forecaster's sensitivity is developed, as is the possibility of matching this to the implementer's circumstances. An exemplar from the field of food and agriculture is demonstrated.

 

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