Signals of the future? Towards the establishment of a forecasting standard using signal detection theory
作者:
G. Lester,
H. Rothman,
期刊:
R&D Management
(WILEY Available online 1977)
卷期:
Volume 7,
issue 2
页码: 89-96
ISSN:0033-6807
年代: 1977
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1977.tb00120.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractThe paper is an attempt to provide a basis for comparing forecasts from different sources and of different types. Heavy use of an analogy with classic signal theory and methods is made. A measure of a forecaster's sensitivity is developed, as is the possibility of matching this to the implementer's circumstances. An exemplar from the field of food and agriculture is demonstrated.
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