Estimation des coûts et des durées pour les projets de construction
作者:
Yves Rommel,
Samuel Holtzman,
期刊:
Journal of Decision Systems
(Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 2,
issue 1
页码: 61-77
ISSN:1246-0125
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1080/12460125.1993.10511557
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: influence diagrams;risk analysis;cost-and-schedule estimates;construction projects;intelligent decision system;diagrammes d'influence;analyse de risques;estimation des coûts et délais;projets de construction;système de décision intelli
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
This paper presents a risk analysis approach applied to cost-and-schedule estimates for construction projects using Intelligent Decision System (IDS) technology. The paper discusses a pilot cost-and-schedule IDS based on influence diagram technology that contains (1) a deterministic model that links and computes specific schedule and cost factors and (2) a risk breakdown structure that describes the parameters influencing these factors. The paper also describes how a user may validate the deterministic and risk models. It concludes by discussing how the IDS calculates the results using a probabilistic engine and how the results are presented to the user.
点击下载:
PDF (941KB)
返 回