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Estimation des coûts et des durées pour les projets de construction

 

作者: Yves Rommel,   Samuel Holtzman,  

 

期刊: Journal of Decision Systems  (Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期: Volume 2, issue 1  

页码: 61-77

 

ISSN:1246-0125

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1080/12460125.1993.10511557

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: influence diagrams;risk analysis;cost-and-schedule estimates;construction projects;intelligent decision system;diagrammes d'influence;analyse de risques;estimation des coûts et délais;projets de construction;système de décision intelli

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper presents a risk analysis approach applied to cost-and-schedule estimates for construction projects using Intelligent Decision System (IDS) technology. The paper discusses a pilot cost-and-schedule IDS based on influence diagram technology that contains (1) a deterministic model that links and computes specific schedule and cost factors and (2) a risk breakdown structure that describes the parameters influencing these factors. The paper also describes how a user may validate the deterministic and risk models. It concludes by discussing how the IDS calculates the results using a probabilistic engine and how the results are presented to the user.

 

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