The Measurement of Economic Uncertainty in Public Water Resource Development
作者:
Bernard W. Taylor,
Ronald M. North,
期刊:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
(WILEY Available online 1976)
卷期:
Volume 58,
issue 4_Part_1
页码: 636-643
ISSN:0002-9092
年代: 1976
DOI:10.2307/1238806
出版商: Oxford University Press
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractThe existing benefit‐cost criteria for evaluating water resource projects are deterministic and therefore incomplete, since the uncertainty inherent in project outcomes is not considered. A Monte‐Carlo simulation approach is used to generate a mean and standard deviation for the benefits, costs, benefit‐cost ratio, and net present value for the controversial Spewrell Bluff Project. Subjective estimates defining probability distributions of project benefits and costs were obtained from the Corps of Engineers. A project selection process that includes probability considerations in the benefit‐cost criteria is recommended and several approaches for including uncertainty as a variable are suggested.
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