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Time-series decomposition and forecasting

 

作者: DAN TEODORESCU,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Control  (Taylor Available online 1989)
卷期: Volume 50, issue 5  

页码: 1577-1585

 

ISSN:0020-7179

 

年代: 1989

 

DOI:10.1080/00207178908953452

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Any stationary time-series can be decomposed by means of an optimization operator, called the ζ-optimator, into several components (the time-series){Yti}, i =1,2,…, p, such that the first component {Vti} t = 1,2,…,v is a smooth process having a larger autocorrelation in comparison with the original process {Yt}, i.e. ρvi> ρy. Usually only a few such components are sufficient for approximating the time-series with good accuracy. The ζ-optimator involves a shape parameter a, so the decomposition is unique provided that a. is fixed. Since the component {Vt1} involves much of the useful information it can be used for computing predictors for control purposes. Thus, given the observations Yv, Yv-1, Yv-2,…, a predictor of Yv+1is ρviVv1(q) where, Vv1(q) = qYv+ q(1-q)2Yv-2, …, the weights q(1-q)r, r=0,1,2,…, decreasing rapidly as q = q(α) ϵ (0,1) Further, one may chooseqrather than choosing α, sinceq(α)is a one-one mapping. Onceqis fixed, the predictor ρv1Vv1(q) is obtained in a straightforward way by using the formula above. It is shown that ρv1Vv1(q) converges to the best predictor as α → 0. Some examples are worked out, illustrating both the decomposition and the forecasting procedures.

 

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