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A multiplicative seasonal growth model for multivariate time series analysis and forecasting

 

作者: Emanuel Pimentel Barbosa,   Regina Sadownik,  

 

期刊: Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation  (Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期: Volume 28, issue 2  

页码: 291-308

 

ISSN:0361-0918

 

年代: 1999

 

DOI:10.1080/03610919908813550

 

出版商: Marcel Dekker, Inc.

 

关键词: approximate bayesian estimation;vector time series;nonlinear models;shared component

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper is devoted to a model for analysis and forecasting of vector time series and the corresponding procedure of Bayesian sequential estimation. This model can also be viewed as a multivariate extension of the (univariate) seasonal growth multiplicative model(Harrison, 1965; Migon, 1984). The basic structure of this multivariate model consists of a locally linear trend component for each individual series and a shared multiplicative seasonal component, common to all marginal series.The procedure of sequential estimation is based on analytic approximations to obtain a conjugate analysis and represents a nonlinear extension of the algorithm presented by Barbosa and Harrison (1992). Details of the proposed procedure and its practical implementation are shown, and two numerical examples are provided.

 

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