STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN U.S. EXTERNAL BALANCE
作者:
CATHERINE L. MANN,
期刊:
Contemporary Economic Policy
(WILEY Available online 1991)
卷期:
Volume 9,
issue 1
页码: 50-58
ISSN:1074-3529
年代: 1991
DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00314.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Projections from many macroeconometric models have suggested that the improving trend in U.S. external balance since 1987 would peter out by the end of 1990. Because the 1980s decade was a turbulent period in the international environment, one might question the reliability of these projections since the economic relationships underlying the models could have changed. This review finds insufficient evidence of structural change or of sufficiently important omitted variables to justify seriously questioning the projections. However, this study also considers model and parameter uncertainty and concludes that continued improvement in U.S. external balance is within the realm of statistical probability—but, then, so is substantial worsenin
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