Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates
作者:
KARL HALVOR TEIGEN,
期刊:
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology
(WILEY Available online 1974)
卷期:
Volume 15,
issue 1
页码: 50-55
ISSN:0036-5564
年代: 1974
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9450.1974.tb00555.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Abstract.—Previous studies of sampling distributions have been conducted almost exclusively under the assumption that persons behave in accordance with the “fundamental convention” of probability, i.e. that the sum of all probability estimates will equal 1. When this assumption was tested by asking subjects to give “unrestricted” probability estimates of all possible outcomes of samples from a given population, a general tendency of overestimation made the sum of all probabilities exceed 1 to a considerable extent. The subjective sampling distributions appeared to be unaffected by sample size (N=5or 10) and number of outcomes, and were flatter than the corresponding “objective” sampling
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