A Bivariate Stochastic Approach to Capital Investment Decisions
作者:
Richard J. Tersine,
William Rudko,
期刊:
The Engineering Economist
(Taylor Available online 1972)
卷期:
Volume 17,
issue 3
页码: 157-176
ISSN:0013-791X
年代: 1972
DOI:10.1080/00137917208902714
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The literature on capital investment analysis abounds with articles pointing to the inadequacies of many of the deterministic techniques for selecting desirable investments. Numerous probabilistic approaches to investment analysis have been propounded, but organizational adoption has been less than spectacular. Why do managers cling to deterministic approaches when the literature contains methods of treating risk? The majority of approaches require a level of awareness and knowledge that the usual manager does not possess. In this paper, a stochastic treatment of future cash flows and investment lifetime is developed via the beta distribution. The technique is simple and realistic enough so that it can be a valuable tool for the financial manager.
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