Weather Risk in Offshore Projects
作者:
BowersJ. A.,
MouldG. I.,
期刊:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
(Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 45,
issue 4
页码: 409-418
ISSN:0160-5682
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.59
出版商: Taylor&Francis
关键词: weather;project management;risk;Markov processes;oil
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
AbstractRisk analysis tools have been used to help manage various projects. This paper describes a case study in which an extension to the stochastic project network model was developed for a risk analysis of an oil platform installation, quantifying the possible impact of the weather on the project's schedule. Examination of the weather data suggested the use of a Markov weather model combined with a separate residence time distribution for key states. The weather model was incorporated into the stochastic project network allowing the interactions of the various project uncertainties to be examined. While the weather introduced a significant additional risk to the project, analysis of management's options indicated that much of the risk might be avoided. In particular, the analysis quantified the benefits of scheduling the project start to take advantage of the seasonal variations and hiring heavy duty equipment to operate in more arduous conditions.
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