Decision‐making under uncertainty for capital budgeting and hiring
作者:
Edward Miller,
期刊:
Managerial and Decision Economics
(WILEY Available online 1985)
卷期:
Volume 6,
issue 1
页码: 11-18
ISSN:0143-6570
年代: 1985
DOI:10.1002/mde.4090060104
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractMost business decisions are not merely risky but are subject to uncertainty. Different individuals estimate different measures of merit. It is shown that the traditional procedure of ranking the alternatives by their estimated measure of merit and then choosing the highest ranked alternative frequently gives the wrong answer even where the estimates are unbiased. The argument will be made using a simple decision tree. The effect will be shown to be especially serious where there is competition, direct or indirect, between the alternatives.
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