The droughts are analyzed by the third asymptotic distribution of smallest values which contains a shape parameter λ, a location parameter θ and a lower limit, the minimum drought ε. If ε = 0 the two remaining parameters are estimated from the sample mean [xbar] and the standard deviations.If the minimum drought ε is positive it is postulated that the estimateshould be smaller than the smallest observed droughtx1. An estimate for λ is obtained from the quotient ([xbar] −x1)/s. The estimation for θ and ε become linear functions of the mean [xbar] and the smallest droughtx1. Since this theory gives an excellent fit to the observations it can safely be used for forecasting.