AbstractThe distributional properties of yield and profit for continuous corn production under nitrogen fertilization are investigated, and the mean and variance are estimated as functions of the rate of nitrogen fertilization. It is noted that the variance of profit increases as the rate of fertilization increases. The current expected yield is shown to be a function of previous yield and fertilization history. It is then demonstrated that information on previous yield outcomes may be used to specify a fertilization program which increases mean profit and/or reduces year‐to‐year variance in profit as compared to a fixed rate of application each year.