Weapon systems that function destructively (e.g., missile or torpedo) are to be acquired in a lot of sizem. Acceptance of the lot is based on the result of an operational test, administered to part of the lot: if the test results indicate positive operational value the lot is accepted and the remaining part of the lot is fielded; otherwise the lot is “rejected”. A test plan is designed that establishes an optimal number of weapon copies to test, given models of the operational gain of the fielded weapon under two tactical options, and the uncertainty in the weapon's predicted probability of success after the test is complete. The major test objective is to realize possible operational utility from the lot of items, and secondarily to demonstrate arbitrary levels of certainty.