Sequential decisions with outcome uncertainty†
作者:
DARRELLR. GIMLIN,
ARTHURM. BREIPOHL,
期刊:
International Journal of Control
(Taylor Available online 1971)
卷期:
Volume 14,
issue 3
页码: 417-427
ISSN:0020-7179
年代: 1971
DOI:10.1080/00207177108932053
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A finite-stage, discrete-time, sequential decision theory problem is formulated. The problem is characterized by a sequence of decisions resulting in uncertain outcomes combined with a choice, between decisions, of experiment for obtaining information about previous outcomes. The solution to the problem entails finding optimal rules for the decisions and experiment choices by the method of backward induction. Three theorems are given which may be used to reduce the computational effort in some problem solutions. A measure of the conditional information in an experiment is defined and results are interpreted relative to that measure. Illustrative applications to a simple control problem are given.
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