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A Neural Network Design to Support Decision Making with a Complex Multicriteria Problem

 

作者: Massimo Boscarino,   Paolo Gianoglio,   Anna Ostanello,  

 

期刊: Journal of Decision Systems  (Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期: Volume 2, issue 2  

页码: 149-171

 

ISSN:1246-0125

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1080/12460125.1993.10511571

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: multiple choices;multicriteria decisions;explicative models;neural networks;choix multiples;décisions multicritères;modèles explicatifs;réseaux neuronaux

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This paper investigates the potentialities of the new technology based on neural networks to realize a DSS that might help the marketing and product planning management of a factory in conceiving strategic decisions regarding prices and product performance levels in an oligopolistic market. A possible oligopolistic market scenario assumes a multiplicity of customers whose choices on a given product set have to be explained; the individual choices of these subjects contribute to defining some market shares to be estimated—with their possible evolution—by a multicriteria model (management's problem formulation). Very few computer based systems to support such a complex problem are found in literature; developed essentially with “classic” methodologies and techniques, they suffer from considering either one single decisional subject (the market/consumer) or a multiplicity of monocriterion choices under uncertainty conditions, without taking into account any integrated representation wich might permit a multiactorial interpretation of “the market” to be given. An approach based on neural networks seems to allow such limits to be overcome, as it has been applied successfully to design and develop a prototype of DSS (MUTANT) for the problem formulated. Some first computational experiments allow some positive judgements to be expressed about the system's validity and the promising potentialities of a new “modelling and problem solving” approach that might be usefully applied so as to enlarge some potentialities of other multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods.

 

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