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Complex Strategic Analysis: A Hypergame Study of the Fall of France

 

作者: BennettP. G.,   DandoM. R.,  

 

期刊: Journal of the Operational Research Society  (Taylor Available online 1979)
卷期: Volume 30, issue 1  

页码: 23-32

 

ISSN:0160-5682

 

年代: 1979

 

DOI:10.1057/jors.1979.3

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractIt is argued that a crucial element in decision-making in conflicts is the need for adequate conceptual complexity in problem formulation. This is illustrated by reference to a disastrous military failure—the fall of France in 1940. A formal model of the strategic situation is constructed using the Hypergame approach, in which the usual game-theoretic assumption that all "players" see the same "game" is discarded. Using this model, further features of the case are explored, and some general conclusions discussed. It is suggested that Hypergame analysis can be of assistance in achieving adequate levels of problem-perception in complex, conflict-prone environments, in particular by helping in the generation of multiple models.

 

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